Jordan Watch : Yusuf Masour: An Economist with a Social Heart

In the era of neo-liberal economic analysis and decision-making in Jordan, supported by many "economic analysts" writing in newspapers and leading our economy it is really refreshing to see articles written by prominant economists with a social heart focusing on social and environmental dimensions of economic policies.

I think the most active and convincing economic analyst in Jordan is Dr. Yusuf Mansour who writes a weekly article in the Jordan Times. His articles are always based on substantiated figures and trends, as well as smart observations and linkages that provide much needed alternative economic analysis. different from the dominant neo-liberal school.

You can read Dr. Mansour's article today from here but I would like to post the full text of a wonderful article he wrote last week about education in Jordan. I will be featuring his weekly article in my blog

Shrinking the learning tree

Yusuf Mansur

Poor Jordanians are taking their children out of private schools and enrolling them in public schools. The behaviour is indicative either of a noticeable improvement in public schooling or of the fact that the poor, faced with rising taxation and costs of living, are opting for private schools to save money.

The latter is the correct answer.

The number of students enrolled in all schools in Jordan was 1.556 million in 2004. Almost two-thirds (1.068 million) went to public schools and the rest to private ones. The total number of schools in Jordan then was 5,378, of which 3,105 (or 58 per cent) were public and 2,273 (or 42 per cent) private. In other words, the private sector provided 42 per cent of the number of schools to host one-third of the student population. Thus, the student to school ratio was higher in public schools than in private schools, an indication that the quality of private schooling was higher than that of public schooling.

In 2007, the total number of students in the Kingdom became 1.74 million, an increase of 3.9 per cent per year. However, the total number of schools in the country was 5,485, an increase of 0.06 per cent per year. In other words, the increase in the number of schools did not match the increase in the student population, which would mean, with the increased student-school ratio, that the quality of education had declined.

Furthermore, of the 5,485 schools that currently exist, 2,318 are private and the rest governmental, which means that private schools increased in three years by a mere 45, or 15 schools per year. On the other hand, public schools increased by slightly more, 62, or 21 schools per year. Hardly something to brag about!

The upshot of the above is that an economy which enjoyed an unprecedented average growth rate in of 7.3 per cent in the last three years, saw fit to increase the schools only by an average of less than 1 per cent. The private sector thought education does not pay and opted not to invest more in it, which is understandable given the bubbles in the stock and real estate markets and the policy failures that harassed private schools with threats of price controls and accusations of greed.

Simultaneously, government expenditures, which increased from JD3,200 million to JD4,000 million in these three years - an average increase of 8.3 per cent per year - only saw fit to increase the number of schools by 21 per year. For all the talk about future generations, it seems that building schools is not included in the development agenda.

Now to costs. The government claims that each student in a public school costs it JD1,500. In other words, the total cost of the increased student population in public schools would cost the government around JD61 million per year, as its expenditures grew by JD267 million per year. Instead of some of the money going to maintain old standards (student-school ratio for example), the government opted to spend the money elsewhere.

There is something inherently wrong in all these numbers. Government resources are not going into building a better future for the future generations; and yes, the quality of education is suffering. But wait, this is not all.

The Ministry of Education complained last week that 100,000 students shifted in the last seven years from private schools to public schools. Given that public education did not improve, as evidenced by the student-school ratio, the average head of household is becoming poorer, which is why children are taken from private schools, where there is more space, to more crowded public schools, where the fees are lower.

The adverse trend is indicative of the fact that the middle income is decreasing, the poor are becoming poorer and the cost of living is becoming unbearable. This finding, based on schooling and schools, is consistent with the findings of last Expenditure and Household Survey of the Department of Statistics, where it was determined that those families that maintained past income levels only managed to do so by selling their assets; a dangerous trend.

I have maintained in the past that it is not the size of government spending that matters, but its quality, or where it is spent. The budget is so asphyxiated by current expenditure commitments that it has no room to build the future. Recent school figures are a case in point.

Questions and comments can be directed at: ymansur@enconsult.com