Batir Wardam Blog: Foreign Policy: Jordan is NOT a failed state!

Foreign Policy: Jordan is NOT a failed state!

Sunday, July 01, 2007

To the dismay of some readers of this blog Jordan is not a failed state. According to the Foreign Policy Index of failed States, published for the third year in the well respected American magazine "Foreign Policy" Jordan does not rank among the 60 failed states of the world which includes seven Arab countries, topped by Sudan.

The Index was developed by the Fund for Peace an independent research organization, and FOREIGN POLICY magazine Using 12 social, economic, political, and military indicators, we ranked 177 states in order of their vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration. The index scores are based on data from more than 12,000 publicly available sources collected from May to December 2006. The 60 most vulnerable states are listed in the rankings. The vast majority of the states listed in the index have not yet failed; they exhibit severe weaknesses that leave them vulnerable, especially to shocks such as natural disasters, war, and economic deprivation. The power of such events should not be underestimated.

The Arab presence in the top 60 failed states is:

1- Sudan.

2- Iraq

3- Somalia.

24- Yemen

28-Lebanon

36-Egypt.

40-Syria.

The country profile for Jordan prepared by the Index shows the following:

Jordan’s GDP per capita was estimated at $4,700, and it has a population of nearly 6 million. Descendents of Palestinian refugees from Israel and West Bank outnumber the “original” Jordanians. 92% of the population is Sunni Muslim.

Greek Orthodoxy and other Christian religions make up another 6%, with 2% consisting of small Shi’a Muslim and Druze populations.

Jordan’s young population and high population growth rate of 2.49% resulted in a rating of 6.0 for demographic pressures in the Failed States Index 2006 (FSI 2006). The 6.8 rating for refugees and displaced persons is a result of the turmoil in Iraq, which caused an increase in the number of refugees fleeing to Jordan. While the large majority of refugees in Jordan are Iraqi, there are smaller groups from Sudan, Syria, Egypt, and Russia as well. 168,000 internally displaced persons from the 1967 Arab-Israeli war are also still present in the country. Jordan received a rating of 6.0 for group grievances in the FSI 2006 because, although the law fundamentally provides for equality between groups, people of Palestinian origin have historically been discriminated against. Although freedom of religion is one of the tenets of the state, not all Christian denominations are legally recognized. Non-Muslims have reported that they face legal and social discrimination, and laws against conversion to non-Muslim faiths are strictly enforced. In addition, human rights activists have charged that the government discriminates against citizens of Palestinian origin in the application of citizenship laws as well as through the electoral districting system. Iraqis, too, have recently claimed that they face prejudice, especially since the November 2005 terrorist attacks. Human flight received a fairly low rating of 5.0 due to the low number of Jordanians leaving the country to find work elsewhere.

Jordan’s major problems lie in economic development. Former monarch King Hussein’s death in 1999 left the country economically unstable, and it has been difficult for his son, King Abdullah, to institute reforms. His “National Agenda,” a plan for political, economic and social change over a period of ten years, has yet to be implemented. Jordan has no oil of its own, and its economy depends upon services, tourism, and foreign aid (mainly from the U.S.). The country has a large budget deficit and an unemployment rate as high as 30%. It also has a high level of inequality, which accounted for the rating of 7.6 for uneven development in the FSI 2006.

Corruption in the executive and legislative branches of the Jordanian government was common, resulting in a rating of 6.8 for state legitimacy in the FSI 2006. The government has been rife with influence peddling and the advancement of personal business interests by illegal means. When the poet Haider Mahmoud wrote a poem to the king warning him of the corruption surrounding him, the press assailed Mahmoud and the prime minister called for him to be fired from his job. However, in June the king instructed that a law be drafted to make government records accessible to the public, and this law has been enforced in practice.

Jordan has a fairly good health system and thus received a rating of 5.8 for the public services category. Human rights present a somewhat greater problem and were rated 6.1. Although in 2003 the government repealed legislation

that sentenced to jail anyone who harmed the king’s reputation by, for example, inciting strikes or holding “illegal” gatherings, there are still human rights issues. The media is still mainly under government control. For example, journalists are often harassed and threatened with detention to induce self-censorship. After the terrorist attacks in 2005, the government pledged to increase civilian security while respecting human rights; however, while civilian authorities generally maintained control over their security forces, there were instances in which these forces committed serious violations. These crimes included the torture of detainees to induce confessions, the mistreatment of individuals held in custody by police, and arbitrary and unlawful arrests. Violence against women is a widespread problem.

The security apparatus received a rating of 6.8 due to the presence of a paramilitary force that bypasses the normal chain of command in the armed forces and reports directly to the king. Jordan scored a 6.6 for factionalized elites in the FSI 2006 due to pressure from Palestinian factions to become involved in securing the West Bank territory. Jordan’s location in the middle of the Arab-Israeli conflict, economic reliance upon other countries’ exports and grants, involvement in the Iraq conflict, and aid received from groups like the International Committee for the Red Cross and United Nations agencies all resulted in a score of 7.0 for external political influences.

Jordan is a constitutional monarchy led by King Abdallah II, who ascended to the throne in 1999 and has since consolidated his power and attempted to institute economic reforms. In April 2005 a new cabinet was sworn in after the former one resigned due to the king’s dissatisfaction with the pace of its reforms. Widespread corruption plagues the executive and legislative branches of the government

Jordan has been a key U.S. ally in the war on terror, but its dedication to this prolonged cause has led to the inevitable weakening of its military as soldiers die and resources dwindle.

Citizens may file complaints of police abuse, and these complaints are usually investigated; 425 were submitted in 2005. Corruption does not present much of a problem to the police force; officers are specially trained to avoid it.

The main problem with Jordan’s police force is its habit of detaining people arbitrarily without formal charges and denying them certain rights, such as the right to a lawyer.

The judicial system consists of civil, criminal, commercial, security, and religious courts. The religious courts include both Shari’a courts and tribunals for non-Muslim religious communities. In general, the system is free from corruption, although family and tribal factors may influence the judges at times.

The civil service is generally effective and the government works to ensure the comfort and security of its members.

And the Verdict is...

Although Jordan is having difficulty in the area of economic development, its general lack of internal violence and the justness of its legal system relative to other Middle Eastern countries give it a solid possibility of improvement.

The government is working to build its health and pharmaceutical industries in order to further economicdevelopment, and leaders have been working tirelessly to secure new investors. King Abdullah has taken theappropriate preliminary steps for economic reform by joining the World Trade Organization in 2000 and beginning participation in the European Free Trade Association in 2001, and if he is able to speed up the pace of his plans, Jordan may well be able to conquer its economic difficulties.

I think this is a very fair and reasonable assessment, which will certainly not impress a lot of visitors to this blog who think Jordan is the worst country in the world.

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(32) comments

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On July, 01, 2007 6:49 PM , Alessandra
from Italy said:

Jordan isn't surely the worst State in the world and neither in Islamic world.
I probably will come there for holiday with my parents: I really hope so! :-)

On July, 01, 2007 7:15 PM , Kafer said:

Jordanians are not a failed people. As a matter of fact, wherever Jordanians go outside of Jordan they thrive culturally, professionally, and economically.

As soon as they enter into the domain of the state + regime, 1 out of 3 becomes poor, unemployed, and hopeless. The other two either succeeded outside of Jordan, or are direct beneficiaries of the politics of repression and targeted-taxation (similar to targeted assassinations)

Each Jordanian has an independence day. It's the day he escapes the grip of repression.

So Jordan the country and Jordanians the people are NOT failures. The only reason Jordan is not like Taiwan, Malaysia, or Singapore, is because of the runaway regime corruption.

On July, 01, 2007 7:26 PM , Rabani said:

I can't believe you are quoting a neo-con publication. This is one of the most politicized "journals" in the US. Hardly a source to be quoted unless you are AIPAC or The New Republic.
Never forget the massive investment the neo-cons put into "moderate" regimes. The last thing they wish to do is to pee on their own cake.

Lets look at the list closely. Syria is a failed state? how? They enjoy the same iron-fist "stability" we enjoy. Egypt a failed state? how? Everything you can say about Syria and Egypt applies to the Jordanian regime, at least based on HRW and AI.

This reports flatters those with unconditional support for US policies in the region. Egypts is guilty of not being 100% stooge of the US and Israel. Syria is guilty of being a supporter of resistance groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine.

So before you celebrate the report, make sure the readers agree the source has any credibility what so ever.

On July, 01, 2007 7:47 PM , Yugi
from Jordan said:

Batir, i wonder why many people defend foreign publications and reports when they are negative, and the same attack the reports and rankings which have positive aspects toward Jordan...
We know in Jordan there's corruption (the article itself says that) I condemn corruption, but i personally found it inappropriate to discuss this issue in such demagogic method as Kafer does.. Targeted assassinations, personal independence day ... I'm sure you can express your points of view without saying such things ;)
The situation is better than Syria when the whole police institution can be corrupted by a few dozen packets of cigarettes.. but you know the "iron-fist stability" is defended by 97% democratically-elected president :)

On July, 01, 2007 9:01 PM , batir
from Jordan said:

Alessandra, you are welcomed at any time.
Kafer; I might agree with you provided that you can accept the difference between our neighbors and those of Malaysia and Singapore.
Rabani; Foreign Policy is not a neo-con publication and if you follow the publication exactly you will see a lot of concerted anti-conservative literature. You can see that Egypt and Pakistan were considered as failed states and tehy got more "investment" than Jordan which proves that your point is not valid.
Syria is a failed state because its people are living in poverty and repression while the country is rich with resources and that can hardly be the case in Jordan.
I do not need the consensus of all the readers to my sources since this wil never happen. I choose mine, and you have the right to object.
Yogi your question is really good. I remember when some visitors of this blog where giving unconditional support for Israeli newspapers when they write something negative about Jordan.

On July, 01, 2007 9:17 PM , alurdunialhurr
from United States said:

I just wonder if jordan never recieve US Aid,will you be able to post this Index??http://www.jordanembassyus.org/05102005004.htm

On July, 01, 2007 9:31 PM , batir
from Jordan said:

Al Urduni, ever wondered what the index will be if Jordan did have some oil and water to make it in no need for US assisstance? Yes, it is a very hypothetical assumption, just like yours!

On July, 01, 2007 9:38 PM , Mohanned said:

Batir, the investment thing is related to the market and resources, egypt for example provides a big consumer market compared to jordan-we are 6 million, they are 75 million, they have gas-water we don't so it is not fair to compare us to egypt or pakistan or even syria..Without the US aid I think by now we should have been competing with iraq and sudan, not to forget the saudi "aid"- but If you want to be more accurate I would define this "aid" as wages for our services and we are way underpaid, our contributions in fighting "terrorism" are priceless..
Urduni, I think that countries tend to buy influence, and don't forget that even england couldn't stand up against money power when it came to the "Yamama deal" so I think it is not fair to blame jordan, we try to do our best in surviving..

But again batir, jordan can be the next singapore if there was enough will..

On July, 01, 2007 9:45 PM , Kafer said:

"i wonder why many people defend foreign publications and reports when they are negative, and the same attack the reports and rankings which have positive aspects toward Jordan..."

This is your flawed reading of the situation. As people we live in Jordan , we know all too well how things are. The report does not flatter Jordanians, it flatters the regime, and for all the wrong reasons. the reports takes away from its credibility when it considers the local gang a success but the Syrian and Egyptian one a failure. Either they all get an F or they all pass. Because honestly looking for differences is like splitting hairs. If the report was fair to Jordanians and acknowledge the role of its educated and politically and socially aware citizens as the driving force behind 90% of the countries positives, few Jordanians would question the report. but the report is pure propaganda and it celebrates the neo-cons handiwork.

On July, 01, 2007 10:05 PM , batir
from Jordan said:

Kafer as you know there are plenty of smart Syrians and Iraqis and lebanese who excell also outside their countries. Ever wondered why the Jordanians have the chance to reflect at least the basic qualities they have in Jordan while Iraqis, Syrians and Lebanese don't? Oh ye..I forgot.. it is the American-Zionist influence again! or maybe it is because the Jordanian regime does provide the opportunity for its people to shine, again partially as I know tens of good Jordanians who driven away because of frustration but this situation is still better than many other countries. For me, success is relative while for you failure os complete.

On July, 01, 2007 10:05 PM , Karibo said:

Batir, I guess if Syria gets as much US and foreign aid as we do, may be they will have less poor people. the question is how come 1 in 3 Jordanians, and we are hardly 5 million people, is either unemployed or poor? yet we are still not a failed state? Besides, don't forget the Jordanian regime is the only one that willingly abandoned its occupied territories and citizens in those territories to avoid the cost of liberation. That's not a moral and political failure? have you heard of a regime that ditches its own land, then fights the resistance?

On July, 01, 2007 10:09 PM , batir
from Jordan said:

Karibou, are you really serious? Jordan abandoned its citiozens and land? For Crying out laoud, wasn't the PLO which stated that it wanted an end of the Jordanian occupation and that each palestinian in Jordan is a Palestinian citizen and not Jordanian?
Wow, you really amaze me!!

On July, 01, 2007 10:13 PM , Karibo said:

"while Iraqis, Syrians and Lebanese don't? Oh ye..I forgot.. it is the American-Zionist "

what do you call over 130,000 invasion tropps in Iraq? conspiracy theory? you are just hopeless Batir.

On July, 01, 2007 10:20 PM , Karibo said:

Was there a referendum? NO! don't use the PLO as an excuse. The PLO was militarily destroyed by the late King. How could a militarily destroyed PLO force the King to ditch his territory? So if the PLO was the powerful how come the King still wants control over Al-Aqsa and other holy sites in Jerusalem? Where is the PLO's influnce on this issue?

So no referendum, and the PLO was destroyed by the king so it can't get in the way of anything, but still wants Jerusalem holy sites. What does that tell us? he ditched the land because he did not want to pay the price of winning it back .

On July, 01, 2007 11:03 PM , batir
from Jordan said:

"he ditched the land because he did not want to pay the price of winning it back ". If that was the case, then I would go again to his grave and thank him for doing the right job. Jordanians have always been considered "traitors" whenever they got involved with the Palestinian issue and the disengagement was the best act of politics ever done by the late King Hussein and I thank him so much for that.

On July, 01, 2007 11:53 PM , batir
from Jordan said:

My dear friend Karibou try to get some memory pills. Iraqis were well in poverty and under repression when Saddam was ruling them and getting all the wealth to himself and then the Americans came and completed the mission. The way you say it gives an idea to a creature from Mars that Iraqis were living in the Baath paradise. As for the Syrians you cannot deny the other paradise of Baath since 1970.

On July, 01, 2007 11:54 PM , Koko said:

"Jordanians have always been considered "traitors" whenever they got involved with the Palestinian "

Batir, Jordanians are one thing. King is another thing. don't you forget that. There were Jordanians for 5000 years. The kingdom and you are less than a 100 years.

Second, never forget that when you thought the PLO was having the upper hand, you were buddies with them. Bus soon as winds of change turned against them, you switched loyalties.

But to comment on your comment. Many East bankers share the same views of west bankers about the role of the king vis a vis the Zionists. but we don't see the king ditching the east bank. how come?

Then what about AL-Aqsa? you never answered that? If king wants to drop west bank, why hold on to AL-Aqsa? there is more claims for the Hashmites over Mecca than Al-Aqsa? what gives?

On July, 02, 2007 7:32 AM , Karibo said:

"Iraqis were well in poverty and under repression when Saddam was ruling them"

unbelievable Batir. Unbelievable. Iraq, according to UN annual reports, before the US siege, had one of the lowest infant mortality rates, best health care and educational system. As a matter of fact, Iraq was inching closer to developed world status and was on par with East European human development statistics.

You are unbelievable!

On July, 02, 2007 10:30 AM , batir
from Jordan said:

Karibou (KoKo, whatever); regarding Al Aqsa King Husseinn did well to try to keep the Islamic identity of the city while Hamas and fateh were fighting whether to have a one state or two state solution and now ended up with no state at all. King Abdullah is not interested in keeping the hold on Aqsa and now you cosnider him to be not passionate towards Palestine. So, for God sake make up your mind about the Hashemite role in Palestine.
Throughout history, states changed and people are more rooted in history and this is the case of Jordan. The Kingdom which is 100 years has done great and I am proud of it. Even if it was 30 years I will always be proud.
"never forget that when you thought the PLO was having the upper hand, you were buddies with them. Bus soon as winds of change turned against them, you switched loyalties.". Excuse me, are you talking to me?

On July, 02, 2007 10:35 AM , batir
from Jordan said:

"Iraq was inching closer to developed world status and was on par with East European human development statistics.?. Well, it is always good to have oil and water and fertile soil for development. With its resources Iraq should have been like Western Europe.
However,then the all mighty Saddam adored by most Arabs decided to wage war against Iran for the sake of the USA and then invaded Kuwait and destroyed the livelihoods of generations of innocent Iraqis. I am amzed how this impressive CV is considered a success in the Arab World. The point is, the Hashemire regime in Jordan was far more responsible towards the well being of the people and state than any nationalist Arab regime especially Iraq.

On July, 02, 2007 12:27 PM , bashar
from Jordan said:

I see it as a fair result, I have to agree with most of it :) and i like your posts Batir

On July, 02, 2007 5:58 PM , Fish said:

"the Hashemire regime in Jordan was far more responsible towards the well being of the people and state than any nationalist Arab regime especially Iraq."

Batir, I don't call Black September responsible. Lets not go there.

But the fact Jordan is not a total failure is a testimony to the resilience of Jordanians, and above all their incredible tolerance for pain, which spared Jordan the instability we see in many of the neighboring countries. Next time you see an average Jordanian, kiss his hand and salute him and say THANK YOU SEEDEE FOR BEING THE CROWN ON MY HEAD. Never EVER forget that Jordan and Jordanians had the potential to turn this wonderful country of ours into the Star of Asia. But God has his reasons and we were cursed with a regime far too incompetent, and far too corrupt for our own dreams and aspirations for our beloved Jordan. And all we have to celebrate is a report by neo-con pseudo-journal telling us our regime is so cool, even as the facts on the ground show a far different story.

On July, 03, 2007 1:29 AM , batir
from Jordan said:

Fish, let us not go to Black September, you will never stand what I may say.
Any simple mind will know that success needs a conducive environment. Syrians and Iraqis are also intelligent but they could not realize their potential despite the huge resources. Any dynamic population will prove itself within the conditions developed by the governance system, and you can see we are a relative success in Jordan.
I have to say I am really fed up with this flow of anonymous comments. This is the bad side of blogging and internet expressions.

On July, 03, 2007 7:34 AM , Alwan
from United Arab Emirates said:

Batir,

I will go to Black Spetmebr, the september whan an army bombed its own civilians, and murdred hundreds if not thousands of innocent JORDANIANS, get your head out your hole. History gets written by the victor, but thank God there are indpenedant sources.

On July, 03, 2007 7:35 AM , Alwan
from United Arab Emirates said:

btw the hell with the PLO , they were Gangsters and murderes in their own way as well, but after all they are gangsters, not a government.

On July, 03, 2007 9:15 AM , موسى said:

"Syrians and Iraqis are also intelligent but they could not realize their potential despite the huge resources."

Batir, any simple mind would know that the whole issue of the discussion is to refuse the assertion the Jordanian regime is any better or worse than the Syrian and Iraqi regimes. Thank you for making my point. All repressive, all self-congratulating, all committed massacres for various reasons, all deny responsibility, all sucked their country's resources dry and destroyed their economies preferring to buy loyalties and enjoy lavish lifestyles for their clans, while their people rot. All claim to be truly democratic, despite the obvious scams that deny their people even a semblance of a working fair democracy. And you as a regime hired pen has ben trying to convince us your benefactors are better for reasons that only you and those who are direct financial beneficiaries seem to agree with. Your key role on the Jordanian blogosphere is to disseminate pure propaganda about how wonderful our regime is and how lucky we are because some mediocre source thinks so. Sounds to me like vintage 1970s eastern block propaganda finally coming to Jordan.

On July, 04, 2007 7:53 AM , zaid matela
from United States said:

jordan will always be first in spite of you all hate mongers. the only thing that unite you is hate to jordan. kafer, jordanian are not a failed people true,but you are.urdnihur living in the us and criticzing jordan for receiving us aid, that's a big joke.

On July, 04, 2007 8:19 AM , zaid matela
from United States said:

alwan, what fateh al-eslam is doing in lebanon today is nothing compared to what those mushroomed organizations where doing in jordan back then. each one had it's own army.

On July, 06, 2007 7:05 PM , Alurdunialhurr
from United States said:

On July, 04, 2007 7:53 AM , zaid matela
from United States said:
"urdnihur living in the us and critiquing Jordan for receiving us aid, that's a big joke. "
First,,what living in the US has to do with me criticizing Jordan,even from a country that that I reside in.
Second,,the reason I cited the source ,is to show that Jordan is completely dependent on US aid and can't survive on it's own ,as Batire was trying to convince you that Jordan is a "viable" State. Third,,Aids from the US is attached with conditions and obligation that Jordan has to follow.
fourth,Jordan can't be a viable State as long as ,Jordan keeps adhering to US demands and condition ,in political science jargon ,it's called client or proxy State

On July, 06, 2007 7:12 PM , batir
from Jordan said:

Al Urduni as you always love to interrogate others and state your opinions I would like to ask you why do you live in the USA and I will be interested to know about your political belief system. You know, for me you are still nothing but a ghost behind a keyboard claiming to have the ultimate wisdom.

On July, 07, 2007 1:42 AM , Alurdunialhurr
from United States said:

,"You know, for me you are still nothing but a ghost behind a keyboard claiming to have the ultimate wisdom."
batir,,I must say this to you ,you made me laugh when I read your comments,
First ,,keyboards are the medium of communication between me and you,don't agree on that ,Batair and isn't true,that you have blog to communicate with outside world such as people like me, Batir??or you want people to except your argument at a face value without rigorous debate and test??
Don't you think your blog will be so boring without people like me who always trying to challenge you and give a different perspective ??,
I don't think you want people who always agree with you,Batir,that would be so bland and boring at the same time,don't you think?
On my political beliefs,,well I probably told you some of it already ,I don't believe in any religion ,and I believe they are like hashish or opium to control the masses and make them terrified of the unknown.
On the question of why I have migrated to US ,I left Jordan for several reason ,A,when I graduated from High school in 1977 with grade average of B,I wasnt able to join the the university of Jordan because I didn't have wasta in the government,so I had no choice but to leave Jordan and seek a different life and depend on my self to become productive human being. B,,I don't think its your business to know Why I migrated.

On July, 07, 2007 2:52 AM , batir
from Jordan said:

Al Urduni, Fantastic, I managed to provoke you to get some answers. It seems it did not cross your mind that I wanted to have a personal communication with you apart from the continuous retaliation we always have. I got a very important piece of info which is the fact that you graduated from high school when I was 8 years old which means that I have to respect you and communicate with you on the basis that you are older and deserve the respect. I think I have the right to know something about the personality of people who make my blog exciting and save it from boredom.
Thanks for the insight, I appreciate it.

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