Jordan Watch : Jordan-Hamas: Circumstantial evidence is not convincing

I have to admit that after more than 10 hours of analysis, follow-up of reactions and talking to peole I have not reached a conclusion about the Government's claim of Hamas introducing weapons to Jordan. Simply, I do not buy this story although I do not doubt its truth!

There are only two options here. The first option is that the government has fabricated the story to stop the meeting between Hamas and Jordan in response to US and European pressures that are very clear. The second option is that Hamas has actually smuggled weapons to Jordan. In either cases, I have no conclusive evidence that will help me take a position and I only have to wait.

It is easy to run into conclusions. People who doubt every move by the governemnt will accuse it of fabrication, and they are well-equipped with circumstantial evidence including the Jordanian anti-Hamas position, the pressure from the USA and Europ to isolate Hamas, and the insecurity from the Hamas win. Moreover, the "fabrication" advocates would state justifiedfacts including that Hamas has never been involved in internal arab policies and have never interferred politically, let alone militarily in internal affairs of Arab countries. For me, Hamas is much different that Qaeda and it is not logical to mix this story with the November 9th terrorists attacks.

As for the pro-governemnt positions, I think they are weak because they depend on an assumption that we must trust the official story and this is not necessarily the case. The official story is not convincing even for pro-governemnt people. I have talked today with many people in Jordan from different walks of life and almost 90% did not believe the story, even though they were so nervous and asking me that they should remian anonymous.

On the other hand, a certain cell or network of Hamas may have actually done this mistake without prior agreement from the hamas leaders. remeber that hamas in Palestine is much more different than Hamas in Syria and Lebanon, and I do not rule-out a movement by some Hamas members outside the collective decision-making process of the Hamas leadership in Palestine.

For me, by using my brain cells and not recalling our Jordanian "Ganwa" mentality, I do not find the governemnt story logical, although I cannot say it is completely fabricated. We need to wait and see more details.

Update 20.4.2006: The Jordanian Prime Minister has met with the Islamic Action Front (IAF) deputies and told them that the weapons were smuggled from Syria and that two arrested people will appear on the TV soon. I think this reinforces my previous initial conclusion that if such an act of intereference has been committed it would be by a cell or network with connection sto Syria or Zarqawi which is not necessariliy linked to Hamas leadership in Palestine. Unless new facts emerge, I still give Hamas leadership in Palestine the benefit of doubt.